Featured · 2024

Co-Convener, Nobel Symposium NS192

Co-convened (with Jakob Svensson, Stockholm University) an invitation-only Nobel Symposium gathering ~40 of the world's leading development economists — including Nobel laureate Esther Duflo — to take stock of microdevelopment research over the past 20 years. Held at STIAS, Stellenbosch, under the auspices of the Nobel Foundation and the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

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NS192
Nobel Symposium
March 2024
Behavioural Economist · Applied Microeconometrician

Rulof P.
Burger

Professor of Economics · Stellenbosch University

Founding Director · Predictive Insights

Affiliated Professor · J-PAL (MIT)

Behavioural economist and applied microeconometrician using randomised field experiments and rigorous quantitative methods to study South African labour markets, poverty, and inequality. D.Phil (Oxford); 1,700+ Google Scholar citations.

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Rulof Burger

Quick Info

Position Professor (since 2021) · Dept. of Economics
Institution Stellenbosch University (2003–present)
Office Schumann 511 · +27 (0)21 808 2328
Email rulof@sun.ac.za
Education D.Phil Oxford · M.Phil Cambridge · M.Comm Stellenbosch
Industry Predictive Insights ↗

Biography

About Rulof Burger

Rulof Burger is Professor of Economics at Stellenbosch University, where he has taught since 2003, and Founding Director of Predictive Insights, a machine learning analytics company helping businesses in more than 20 countries leverage AI to make better operational and strategic decisions. His research sits at the intersection of behavioural economics and applied microeconometrics, using randomised controlled trials, structural econometric models, and rigorous quantitative methods to understand labour market behaviour, poverty, and inequality in South Africa. His work spans job search and employment, race-based discrimination, worker incentives and effort, the returns to education, and the design of effective anti-poverty interventions.

He holds a D.Phil in Economics from Oxford University, an M.Phil from Cambridge University, and an M.Comm from Stellenbosch University. He is an affiliated professor at the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) at MIT and has held visiting positions at Harvard University. His research has been funded by the World Bank, IDRC, UNU-WIDER, and J-PAL Africa. He has forthcoming publications in the Review of Economics and Statistics and Experimental Economics, and his work has appeared in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Health Economics, Empirical Economics, the Journal of African Economies, and the South African Journal of Economics, among others.

In 2024 he co-convened Nobel Symposium NS192 — Microdevelopment Research in the Last 20 Years — at STIAS alongside Jakob Svensson of Stockholm University, gathering approximately 40 of the world's leading development economists under the auspices of the Nobel Foundation.

Areas of Focus

Research Interests

Behavioural Economics

Randomised field experiments, behavioural interventions, and the intention–behaviour gap in job search and workplace decisions.

Applied Microeconometrics

Programme evaluation, non-parametric estimation, panel data methods, limited dependent variable models, and machine learning.

Labour Economics

Employment, wages, unemployment dynamics, and labour market transitions in South Africa.

Development Economics

Poverty, inequality, social grants, and economic mobility in developing contexts.

Education Economics

Returns to schooling, teacher quality, and the unintended consequences of education policy.

Predictive Analytics

Machine learning approaches to demand forecasting, applied through Predictive Insights.

Peer-Reviewed Work

Publications

FC

Name-Based Race Discrimination: The Role of Heuristics

Abel M. & Burger R.P.

Review of Economics and Statistics

Forthcoming
FC

Choice Over Payment Schemes and Worker Effort

Abel M. & Burger R.P.

Experimental Economics

Forthcoming
2024

Youth Employability Programmes in South Africa: Which Features Work Best and for Whom?

Khan Z., Patel L., Graham L., Burger R.P., Chowa G.A. & Masa R.

Development Southern Africa, 41(1), 207–224

Journal Article
2023

Big Data Forecasting of South African Inflation

Botha B., Burger R.P., Kotzé K., Rankin N. & Steenkamp D.

Empirical Economics, 65, 149–188

Journal Article
2022

The Effectiveness of Affirmative Action Policies in South Africa

Burger R.P., Jafta R., von Fintel D.

Handbook on Economics of Discrimination and Affirmative Action, Springer

Book Chapter
2021

Testing an Incentive-Based and Community Health Worker Package Intervention to Improve Maternal Health and Nutrition Outcomes

Rossouw L., Burger R.P. & Burger R.

Maternal and Child Health Journal, 25(12), 1913–1922

Journal Article
2020

The Value of Reference Letters: Experimental Evidence from South Africa

Abel M., Burger R.P. & Piraino P.

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 12(3), 40–71

Journal Article
2019

Bridging the Intention-Behavior Gap? The Effect of Plan-Making Prompts on Job Search and Employment

Abel M., Burger R.P., Carranza E. & Piraino P.

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 11(2), 1–19

Journal Article
2019

An Incentive-Based and Community Health Worker Package Intervention to Improve Early Utilization of Antenatal Care

Burger R., Burger R.P. & Rossouw L.

Maternal and Child Health Journal, 23(5), 633–640

Journal Article
2017

An Econometric Method for Estimating Population Parameters from Non-Random Samples: An Application to Clinical Case Finding

Burger R.P. & McLaren Z.

Health Economics, 26, 1110–1122

Journal Article
2017

Income and Price Elasticities of Demand in South Africa: An Application of the Linear Expenditure System

Burger R.P., Coetzee L.C., Kreuser C.F. & Rankin N.A.

South African Journal of Economics, 85(4), 491–514

Journal Article
2015

The Effect of Schooling on Worker Productivity: Evidence from a South African Industry Panel

Burger R.P. & Teal F.J.

Journal of African Economies, 24(5), 629–644

Journal Article
2015

The Unintended Consequences of Education Policies on South African Participation and Unemployment

Burger R., van der Berg S. & von Fintel D.

South African Journal of Economics, 83(1), 74–100

Journal Article
2014

Rising Unemployment in a Growing Economy: A Business Cycle, Generational and Life-Cycle Perspective

Burger R.P. & von Fintel D.

Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 38(1), 35–64

Journal Article
2012

The Fertility Transition in South Africa: A Retrospective Panel Data Analysis

Burger R.P., Burger R. & Rossouw L.

Development Southern Africa, 29(5), 738–755

Journal Article

Full list of publications and working papers: Google Scholar · IDEAS/RePec

Academic Training

Education

2007–2012

D.Phil in Economics

University of Oxford (Mansfield College)

Dissertation: Estimating the shape of the South African schooling earnings profile · Supervisor: Francis Teal · Passed coursework with distinction

2003–2004

M.Phil in Economics

University of Cambridge

Passed with distinction · Awarded Nedbank/Old Mutual Budget Speech Competition Cambridge Scholarship

2002–2003

M.Comm in Economics

Stellenbosch University

Passed with distinction · Best Master's student in Economics · Ernst and Ethel Eriksen Scholarship

2001–2002

B.Comm (Hons) in Economics

Stellenbosch University

Passed with distinction · S.A. Cloete Medal for best post-graduate student in Economics · Finansies & Tegniek prize for best Honours student

1997–2000

B.Comm in Mathematics

Stellenbosch University

Courses at Stellenbosch University

Teaching

Honours / Masters

Microeconomics

Graduate

Advanced Econometrics

Graduate

Programme Evaluation & Non-parametric Estimation

Graduate

Game Theory & Behavioural Economics

3rd Year / Graduate

Labour Economics

Graduate & Undergraduate

Development Economics

PhD Students Supervised

Dieter von Fintel
Completed 2015
Marisa von Fintel
Completed 2015
Hendrik van Broekhuizen
Completed 2016
Asmus Zoch
Completed 2017
Kholekile Malindi
Completed 2019
Nwabisa Makaluza
Completed 2019
Joel Gondwe
Completed 2020
Melt van Schoor
Completed 2025
Michael Kilumelume
Ongoing
Wawa Nkosi
Ongoing

Completed Ongoing

Recognition

Awards & Funding

Honours & Awards

2021NRF C-rating (Established Researcher)
2015HB & MJ Thom Award for sabbatical study
2015Oppenheimer Memorial Trust Award
2015NRF Y-rating (Promising Young Researcher)
2012–15Rector's Award, Stellenbosch University
2006–07Nominated, Golden Key Best Lecturer Award
2003–06Departmental Teaching Award
2003Best Master's Student in Economics, Stellenbosch
2002Cambridge Scholarship (Nedbank/Old Mutual)
2002S.A. Cloete Medal, Best Post-Graduate in Economics
2002Finansies & Tegniek prize, Best Honours student

Selected Research Funding

2022World Bank — Measurement Error and Dynamics of Wellbeing (PI)
2019IDRC — Future of Work in the Global South (PI)
2015UNU-WIDER — Affirmative Action in South Africa (PI)
2014World Bank — Skill Certification and Job Counselling RCT (PI)
2014PSPPD II (EU/Presidency) — Job Counselling RCT (PI)
2014J-PAL Africa & Broadreach — Thula Baba Box health intervention (PI)
2014REDI Team Grant — South African unemployment (Team Leader)
2013Stellenbosch University Elite Research Grant (PI)

Get in Touch

Contact & Affiliations

I welcome inquiries from prospective postgraduate students, research collaborators, and organisations interested in applied economic analysis or predictive analytics.

Phone
+27 (0)21 808 2328
Office
Schumann Building 511, Stellenbosch University

Stellenbosch University · ReSEP

Research on Socio-Economic Policy (2003–present)

J-PAL — Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab

Affiliated Professor (2020–present)

Harvard University

Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics (2016)

Predictive Insights

Founding Director (2018–present) · predictiveinsights.co.za ↗